The Visa Experts

How We Calculate Visa Refusal Rates

How We Calculate Visa Refusal Rates

Every figure on this site comes from an official government report -- never estimated, scraped, or crowdsourced. This page explains what "refusal rate" means for each source, and one important distinction worth understanding before comparing numbers across countries.

What counts as a refusal

In every case, "refusal rate" is calculated as refused applications divided by total decided applications (refused + approved) for the period shown -- withdrawn or incomplete applications are excluded by the source, not counted as refusals. Definitions vary slightly by issuing body:

European Commission DG HOME (Schengen states)

Covers uniform Schengen visas (short-stay, Type C) only -- airport transit and border-crossing-point visas are excluded. Figures are published per Schengen state and, in the underlying dataset, broken down further by applicant nationality and by the consulate where the application was lodged (see the caveat below). Source: European Commission DG HOME.

US Department of State

Covers B-visas (B-1, B-1/B-2, and B-2 combined) -- business and tourism travel. Published two ways: a per-nationality breakdown (used for this site's nationality-based figures) and a separate annual "Worldwide NIV Workload" total that is B-1/B-2-specific and doesn't reconcile exactly with the per-nationality aggregate, since it's a different published document with its own methodology. Source: U.S. Department of State.

UK Home Office

Covers visit visas, reported per applicant nationality directly -- a genuine nationality-based measure, not a location proxy. Source: UK Home Office.

Ireland Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration

Covers short-stay (Type C) visas, reported per applicant nationality directly, same as the UK. Source: Ireland Department of Justice.

Nationality vs. where the application was lodged

US, UK, and Ireland figures are a direct measure: published per applicant nationality, so "Bangladeshi applicants" genuinely means citizens of Bangladesh. Schengen's per-nationality figures (used throughout this site's nationality tables and tiles) are the same -- a genuine, direct nationality measure, confirmed against DG HOME's own published dataset structure.

The one place this distinction matters is consulate-level data -- the tables on the Schengen page and on individual Schengen countries' Visa Statistics pages showing figures by consulate or visa-issuing post. That data is published by where the application was lodged, not by the applicant's nationality. A row for "consulate in Dakar" reflects everyone who applied at that post -- residents, expatriates, and travelers of many nationalities passing through -- not specifically Senegalese citizens. We phrase these rows as "applications lodged in [city]" rather than attributing them to a nationality, and every consulate-level table on this site links back to this explanation.

Data freshness

Figures update as each government body publishes a new report -- there's no fixed release schedule shared across all four sources. Every table and chart on this site cites the specific report and publish date behind each number, so you can always see exactly how current a given figure is rather than assuming it's real-time.